How fast do I have to run?

Some statistics on the State Course I've compiled :
All-State 10th place by classification(5A-1A), # Sub 16:00,                                                         Winning Time Overall, Top 25, Top 50, Top 100, Top 150
1998,16:24, 16:30, 17:09, 17:50, 18:46, 6, 15:37, 16:30, 16:50, 17:19, 17:43
1999, 16:23, 16:20, 16:48, 17:45, 17:51, 9, 15:07, 16:30, 16:47, 17:11, 17:29
2000, 16:28, 16:30, 17:10, 18:02, 17:50, 4, 15:36, 16:30, 16:58, 17:28, 17:50
2001, 16:27, 16:20, 16:41, 18:04, 17:24, 7, 15:24, 16:26, 16:45, 17:19, 17:39
2002, 16:16, 16:22, 16:57, 18:08, 18:07, 5, 15:36, 16:22, 16:48, 17:19, 17:41
2003, 16:26, 16:39, 16:56, 18:11, 18:14, 0, 16:06, 16:36, 16:53, 17:25, 17:45
2004, 16:42, 16:25, 16:39, 17:38, 18:10, 6, 15:34, 16:29, 16:46, 17:19, 17:37
2005, 16:28, 16:52, 16:57, 18:11, 18:10, 2, 15:34, 16:39, 16:54, 17:23, 17:42
2006, 16:16, 16:35, 16:50, 17:34, 18:05, 4, 15:43, 16:32, 16:50, 17:15, 17:35
2007, 16:25, 16:26, 16:57, 17:39, 17:52, 7, 14:54, 16:25, 16:46, 17:11, 17:33
2008, 16:06, 16:08, 16:25, 17:36, 17:50, 13, 15:17, 16:08, 16:26, 16:53,17:11
2009, 16:02, 16:18, 16:43, 18:32, 18:09, 11, 15:23, 16:15, 16:30, 17:01,17:24
2010, 15:53, 16:22, 17:00, 18:00, 18:24, 13, 15:23, 16:14, 16:39, 17:05,17:23
2011, 15:57, 16:15, 16:24, 17:54, 17:58, 14, 15:22, 16:10, 16:27, 16:55,17:10
2012, 15:59, 15:58, 16:07, 17:34, 17:41, 27, 14:56, 15:57, 16:14, 16:43,16:59